Understanding forecasting in the era of AI and Big Data, Minds Versus Machines
Predictive modeling is the analysis of the present and previous facts to make future outcomes about events.Variuos techniques are used in the course of prediction such as regression, time series and machine learning methods.
It is in the common knowledge of people in every society that the modern technological advancements have turned the world upside down. Some of the routinely consulted models in forecasting used in various firms include the following:
Predictive analytics. According to Fair Isaac Corporation (2018), “they are embedded in the course of operations and are activated when doing live transactions” (Main types of predictive analysis Para. 2). The models analyze historical and raw transnational data in order to isolate negative patterns.
Descriptive Models. They identify many unique and distinguished relationships between clients and products. The models show the relationships in data in such a manner that is often used to classify prospects into groups.
Decision models. They predict the outcomes of decisions that are expected by an organization. The decisions are those that are complex in nature. They predict what will happen whenever a certain action is taken.
Bayesian Spam Filter. According to Margaret (2018), “it is used identify the probability that a given message is a spam” (Application of predictive Modeling Para. 3).It prevents fraudulent activities in a business entity.
Customer Relationship Management is a predictive modeling applied to target communication to the clients who are highly expected to make a purchase of the products of the business.
Capacity Planning (Disaster Recovery).It is used in the physical data security management in planning for a larger geographical area with a high population.
When AI better in predicting outcomes/Circumstances in which to use them
Error Reduction. Artificial Intelligence aids in the course of weather analysis and prediction in which the chance of reaching accuracy is increased together with a higher degree of exactness and precision.
Artificial Intelligence can be applied within Human Resource department to identify a list of people who are qualified to for a given job without looking into biases such as age or ethnicity.
Endurance. The predictive models are capable of operate and complete dangerous tasks that humans cannot attempt.
When estimating Credit Risk. Forte Consultancy (2010) has pointed that “an institution can estimate the likelihood of a loan being defaulted on by looking at several variables such as income, credit history, and outstanding load balances etc” (“The Power of Predictive Modeling,” para.9).
Act as digital Assistants. Advanced organizations and entities apply them in the Business forecasting so as to save human resources. There are no emotions for these artificial thinkers hence doing performing the task without distraction. The models function logically hence taking programmes with the right decisions.
Where there is need to avoid repetitive jobs. The machines in the weather forecasting are very intelligent and they think faster than natural persons. They can additionally multi-task. Their parameters may be adjusted based on the calculation and speed.
Humans can give better outcome where there is need to give the result in an interactive manner. The prediction outcome given by humans is likely to be in an interactive process
Strength of humans
Humans are creative. They are capable to have perception and sympathy and have the understanding of the surrounding and the societal needs.
Humans can improve their expertise with experience. According to Wisestep (2018) “unlike artificial intelligence, humans can improve their quality with experience” (Artificial Advantages and Disadvantages, Para.29). The predictive model Machines can wear and tear whereas human experience continues to grow.
Adaptability: Humans are by nature good at identifying problems worth solving and can meaningfully think and have ideas on how to solve them. If they cannot solve them amicably, they have the opportunity to present them to those well endowed with the knowledge and expertise to handle such matters. Artificial Intelligence cannot do this.
Humans are able to perform multiple tasks even outside their mandated duties since they are not as programmed as the artificial Intelligence models that cannot work outside their programmed codes.
Combining forces of the mind and machines
If humans apply their constructive ideas well together with the artificial intelligence, poverty eradication can be achieved. Hunger that is affecting millions globally can be put away by applying the predictive models in the agricultural fields.
Research and in-depth study can help in controlling the destructions that the Artificial Intelligence machines have caused. Research is able to regulate the potential effects of harm that is associated with the predictive machines.
The role of human beings in the technological advancement is to foresee any possible danger that the Artificial Intelligence can cause to the human race and the environment generally. Measure must be put in place to respond to such consequences. For instance lethal weapons are a product of artificial intelligence so it calls for the researchers and the humans operating them to be alert so as not to misuse them. Furthermore, the artificial intelligence should be used by people who are well informed about their operations. Education should be widely spread on how to handle them responsibly.
Everything in this world has surely been created to advance the quality of life. So long as the experts and humans are attentive to the beneficial aspects of technology, there should be no worry on the artificial intelligence. Good news is that with a cooperative effort it can be managed to provide variety options for the human kind and efficiency improved. It is noteworthy that there are some tasks that the artificial intelligence cannot perfume because they must be coded by the experts.
The bad news however is that if there are no adequate laws and regulatory policies in place the rate of unemployment may sour to higher level. Creativity is also likely to be eroded at work places due to unnecessary dependence on machines.
In summary, the paper suggests that a delicate balance be maintained in the course of advancing technological knowhow in the day to day life. Human kind cannot live without technology likewise technology should not replace the human intelligence in totality. The way to go is to involve various stakeholders before artificial intelligence machines are introduced into the market because the consequences are felt globally.
Wisestep (2016).Artificial Intelligence: Advantages and Disadvantages. Retrieved 19 April 2018, from https://.content.wisestep.com/advantages-disadvantages-artificial-intelligence/Forte Consultancy (2010).Wondering What Lies Ahead? The Power of Predictive Modeling. Retrieved 19 April 2018, from https://forteconsultancy.wordpress.com/2010/05/17/wondering-what-lies-ahead-the power-of-predictive-modeling/Fair Isaac Corporation (2018).Predictive Analytics Explore the Science That Make Decisions Smarter. Retrieved19.April 2018, from www.fico.com/en/predictive-analyticsMargaret, R (2018).Predictive Model. Retrieved 18 April 2018 from https://searchesenterpriseai.techtarget.com/definition/predictive-modeling